Thirty-four years ago an ex-mayor of Calgary ran for the leadership of a provincial political party. The ex-mayor was Ralph Klein, “the people’s mayor,” and the party was Alberta’s natural governing party, the Progressive Conservatives. 

Then, as now, the Conservative party was made up of two cultures. There were the deeply conservative rural conservatives and the more progressive urban variety. The latter had dominated the party since Peter Lougheed had first brought it into the modern era in 1971. The favourite for leader in the 1992 contest was from that branch of the party, Minister of Health Red Tory (and later Liberal) Nancy Betkowski.

Klein was widely criticized for his laissez-faire approach to governing and his notorious partying. Minister of Culture Doug Main, who was also competing for the leadership, exclaimed “We can’t win this province back—we can’t be the government—with a smoking, drinking, paving, glad-handing premier.”

Betkowski won the first ballot but Klein won overwhelmingly on the second. His victory is generally attributed to populist support from rural Albertans. He had long cultivated them, travelling the countryside attending fairs and rodeos, presenting himself as one of the folk. And when he needed them, they came through.

This formula has just recently achieved another success. Hungary’s Péter Magyar and his Tisza Party were contesting a very different election in a very different country, but facing a similar challenge. The incumbent, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, was head of a well-entrenched government secured by deeply conservative rural voters with a leader who knew his base and how to push their buttons. Very much like Alberta and its leader today.

In previous elections, opposition parties had generally avoided campaigning in rural areas as they had little to gain. Not Magyar. He is a conservative himself, indeed he was a leading figure in Orban’s Fidesz Party until he quit, fed up with its corruption, and went on to join Tisza. 

For the two years preceding the election, Magyar spent most of his time in the countryside, holding rallies in up to six or eight villages a day. No village was too small to deny a visit. 

The election was won in the countryside. Whereas in previous elections, Orbán had owned the rural seats, this time they went to Magyar, who also maintained his party’s dominance in the cities.

Can Naheed Nenshi, Alberta’s current NDP leader, repeat the magic of his Calgary predecessor and do a Petér Magyar?

A recent poll by Janet Brown Opinion Research does not bode well for him and his party. NDP support is slipping while the governing UCP enjoys the longest honeymoon “since the Ralph Klein days.” And Premier Danielle Smith shows significantly stronger support than Nenshi.

Magyar has advantages Nenshi doesn’t. He is a conservative himself whereas the NDP leader is not only very urban but very progressive. Whereas Magyar ignored his country’s last pride parade, Nenshi is front and centre for such events. In fact he was the first Calgary mayor to lead the Pride Parade as Grand Marshal. Whereas Magyar is anti-immigrant, Nenshi is an immigration champion. 

We all know where Alberta’s country folk stand on these issues and Danielle Smith is well tuned into them. Nenshi has a steep hill to climb.

Yet it’s hard to see the NDP winning the next election if they can’t make a significant dent in that rural monolith. So with an election coming up next year, Nenshi might think seriously of putting on his white Stetson and cowboy boots and spending a summer in the country.