Old folks vote reliably Conservative, right? Well, they often do but not reliably. At least not recently. According to an article in The Conversation, summarizing data from this century’s federal elections, seniors’ support for the Conservatives has been on a bit of a roller coaster.

Early in the century, the senior vote for the Conservatives was modestly larger than that of other age groups. Then Mr. Harper came along and apparently they liked him. The senior vote share in 2008 almost doubled. It dropped back to its roughly 40 percent with the election of Mr. Trudeau, but was still higher than any other age group. Seniors remained the Conservatives best bet.

Then in the 2025 election, the bottom fell out. Not only did seniors’ support for the Conservatives collapse, but it fell to the lowest of all age groups. In one election seniors went from the Conservatives strongest supporters to their weakest.

The reason wasn’t a mystery. Concern about Trump and his tariffs was twice as high among seniors than among those under 65. And of course concern about this unpredictable and threatening president was alleviated by the opportunity to elect a government led by the impressively experienced Mark Carney, a man of great success in both the private and public sectors.

The Liberal leader offered an opportunity for leadership by a grown-up, not always on offer in this day and age. Seniors, more worried about the Canada-U.S. relationship than everyone else, appreciated the maturity.

They were much less interested in the housing crisis than younger groups, a big issue with Poilievre’s Conservatives, along with affordability generally. That probably accounted for the Conservatives doing unusually well with young voters.

That echoed, to some degree, the shift toward Trump and the Republicans of American youth, at least among young men. However, The Conversation article found that while Conservative support among younger age groups was up for the 2025 election it was still about the same as levels in the early 2000s.

A disappointment to this old guy is that while in the 2019 and 2021 election years, the environment was the second most important issue after the economy, in 2025 it dropped to a trivial fifth place. We should not be surprised therefore that the Liberals have been able to back off their climate change promises apparently with impunity. They can afford the reversal if it earns them credits elsewhere.

And maybe it has. The latest poll I saw put the Liberals 14 points over the CPC, the best showing in a decade, with Carney’s personal appeal doubling Poilievre’s. Whatever Ottawa is doing, I dare say not only old folks approve.