Support for separatism in Alberta ebbs and flows, up to maximum support of about 30 percent of the population, where it is now.

One might wonder if only 30 percent support it, why does the premier pay it so much attention. In addition to the infamous Alberta Sovereignty within a United Canada Act, her government recently introduced a bill into the legislature that would lower the bar for a citizen-led referendum. There is little doubt who that is meant to serve.

One obvious reason for Smith rattling the cage is to gain leverage over the feds, put a little scare into them to get what she wants, a not uncommon tactic of premiers.

But there’s another reason that may be even more important. Her party, the UCP (United Conservative Party), is essentially a separatist party. She is simply answering to her supporters.

A recent survey conducted for the CBC showed that 54 percent of UCP supporters would vote “for” if a separation referendum was held today. Only 39 percent would vote “against.” One might reasonably assume that ratio is reflected in the party caucus.

Smith is walking a tightrope. If she ignores the separatists, they might run her off, as they did her predecessor. Or they might separate from the UCP to form a new party. On the other hand, if she gets too tight with the separatists, she loses the support of the moderate middle. I’m taking her at her word that she isn’t herself a closet separatist.

The CBC survey indicated that Albertans’ loyalties were divided into thirds, one-third more attached to Canada than Alberta, one-third more to Alberta and a third equally to both. Smith is looking to hold on to the latter two and seems to be doing a decent job of it. She is not a particularly popular premier, but her popularity has steadily increased and the UCP would increase its seat count if an election were held today. Smith does know her people.

She seems to be holding the separatists at bay while succeeding with that middle group that opposes separation but wants a better deal from Ottawa. People like a fighter and she is that.

Her opponent, NDP chief Naheed Nenshi, is in quite a different position. Ninety-eight percent of his party’s supporters would vote against separation. Perhaps because of this, he isn’t picking fights with Ottawa, and tends therefore to look weak relative to Smith.

In any case, while Smith has been gaining strength, Nenshi has simply not caught on. Furthermore, the UCP now has a solid lead in Calgary and is getting close in Edmonton, while outside of the big cities remains a wasteland for the NDP.

The leader and his party need more support than those Albertans who are unreservedly committed to Canada. You can’t win an election with just a third of the voters. And it doesn’t help to look like you’re soft on Ottawa. Nenshi has proven he’s a fighter but perhaps not proven to Albertans that he’ll fight for them.

Having an enemy to rally the masses is a tried and true political tactic that Smith seems to be using effectively. The enemy of choice for Alberta premiers is of course the feds. We do not need the NDP playing footsie with separatists à la Danielle Smith, but Nenshi may have to show a little more Alberta fire, nonetheless.

A by-election has been called so we should see the NDP leader leading the opposition in the legislature by the end of the month. Finally. That will be his chance to up his game, to take up some of that energy Smith tends to monopolize.