Preston Manning has, as he is wont to do, once again aroused the bogeyman of Western separation. He warns that “Voters, particularly in central and Atlantic Canada, need to recognize that a vote for the Carney Liberals is a vote for Western secession.” Vote for my guys or else—where else have we heard that lately.

Note the “Western secession.” Not Alberta, not Saskatchewan, but Western secession. Mr. Manning consistently, like too many others, refers to “The West” as some sort of monolithic political bloc. Of course it is not. There may in fact be more political differences in Western Canada than in the East.

Recent election polls have illustrated the diversity. The Conservatives are well ahead in Alberta and Saskatchewan as usual, but the Liberals have the edge in B.C. and Manitoba. I doubt the latter two will be particularly upset with a Prime Minister Carney. Nor will they be much interested in separation.

The West is bookended by NDP governments, the most left-wing of our major parties. No Eastern province is governed that far to the left. In the other two Western provinces, the NDP forms the official opposition to conservative governments. There is clearly no political bloc here, no common set of uniquely “Western values.”

Even Alberta isn’t monolithic, with a largely conservative south and more progressive north, and big cities more progressive, the country solid conservative. In the last provincial election, every seat in Edmonton and most in Calgary went NDP. The UCP swept the rural ridings.

As for Manning’s dire predictions about separatism unleashed if the Liberals win, a recent Angus-Reid survey shows that there would be a bump in Albertans’ support for the idea but not much of one. With a Carney victory, support rose from 25 percent to 30, still leaving the overwhelming majority voting no thanks.

The survey also illustrated the different attitudes among the Western provinces. Saskatchewan shows as much support for separation as Alberta, but Manitoba shows no more than Ontario and the Maritimes. BC shows a tad more interest, likely due to the more conservative interior. Overall, interest in separation has cooled significantly since the 2019 election.

Angus-Reid also asked if respondents felt their province was treated fairly by the federal government and, while majorities in Alberta and Saskatchewan said no, the number who said yes has increased sharply since 2019. All other provinces except the Maritimes show majorities thinking their province is treated fairly. About twice as many in British Colombian and Manitoba think their province is respected by the feds than in Alberta or Saskatchewan.

Not surprisingly supporters of separation are overwhelmingly conservative, except in Quebec. About 40 percent of Conservative Party supporters said they would vote yes in a referendum to separate (either to form their own country or to join the U.S.) if the Liberals win the election. Only five percent of NDP and Liberal supporters said the same. The survey didn’t ask about voting for separation if the Conservatives win although I think we can guess the results.

Like Manning, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is showing some anxiety as the election approaches, also laying down the law. After a recent meeting with Carney, she stated “I provided a specific list of demands the next prime minister, regardless of who that is, must address within the first six months of their term to avoid an unprecedented national unity crisis.” The demands include scrapping the emissions cap, guaranteeing pipelines can be built in every direction, and the single-use plastics prohibition be abolished (“so we can start using straws again.”—she has a thing about straws.)

I can appreciate the two Conservatives’ surly mood. For some time they have been watching the polls and looking forward eagerly to Poilievre and his Conservatives sweeping to an overwhelming majority. Then Carney enters the picture and suddenly everything is turned upside down and a Liberal sweep looks possible. Damn that Carney.

So I sympathize, but despite Mr. Manning’s fevered imagination, there is still no “The West” to demand separation. There is a geographic West, but not a political one.