Populism, particularly the right-wing variety, has had a good run lately. Liberal democracy has been set on the back foot. The confidence of people around the world has been shaken by overwhelming change: globalization, automation and AI, and climate change among the disorienting agents.
People have reacted as they commonly do when events overwhelm them, leaving them shaken, fearful of the future and doubting their own institutions. They look for a saviour, someone who will reassure them, offer simple answers to the big problems, and identify the villains to blame for their misery. Someone who can make things great again.
Enter the populist, the demagogue, the fascist. And we have seen more than a few exploit the moment and take the reins of their respective countries: Urban in Hungary, Milei in Argentina, Bukele in El Salvador, Chavez in Venezuela, Bolsonaro in Brazil, Modi in India, Netanyahu in Israel, and of course most infamous of all, Trump in the U.S..
But is it possible they are beginning to wear out their welcome? Jair Bolsonaro certainly wore out his.
Bolsonaro, A former army officer who lionized the 1964-1985 military dictatorship (he insists torture is a “legitimate practice”) swept into the presidency of Brazil in 2018. An anti-abortion, anti-establishment, anti-immigrant and pro-gun politician, he is a great admirer of Donald Trump, a sentiment Trump returns.
His regime was soon beset by scandal and undermined by his own divisive character. His handling of the Covid pandemic was a shambles resulting in one of the world’s highest death rates. After one term in office he was defeated in the 2022 presidential election by the former president, Lula da Silva.
He did not go quietly. He incited an insurrection and organized a plan to kill his successor. His schemes failed and he was convicted of plotting a coup and sentenced to 27 years in prison. President Trump was not pleased and imposed 50 percent tariffs on Brazil as punishment.
Another Tump admirer, President Javier Milei of Argentina, is also having problems. Elected in 2023 on the promise of straightening out the nations’s shambolic finances, the libertarian economist has brought a fundamentalist free market approach to government. He lauds Trump as the champion who will save the West from “woke ideology,” and he intends to follow the U.S. lead in withdrawing from the Paris Accord and the World Health Organization. Trump calls him his “favourite president.”
The friendship is paying off. Milei has mired his country in a huge scandal by promoting a cryptocurrency called $Libra that bilked investors out of $250 million. The Argentine peso is tumbling as a result. However, The Trump administration has pledged to do whatever is necessary to support Argentina’s struggling economy.
Even the firmly established populist regime of Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India has had a major setback. Expected to consolidate its grip even further in the 2024 elections, his Bharatiya Janata Party lost its parliamentary majority and has been forced to govern with coalition partners.
The big deal of course is the U.S. Are any cracks showing in the populist world of Donald Trump? It appears there are.
The Jeffrey Epstein files alone have created fractures. These files were a prime source of MAGA conspiracy-mongering about Democratic pedophiles in high places. That the Trump administration is resisting releasing the files has now cast suspicion on the Donald, who was in fact a long-time buddy of Epstein.
Once one of Trump’s strongest supporters, Marjorie Taylor Greene, right-wing Republican congresswoman from Georgia, recently backed a bill ordering the release of the files for which she was scolded by the White House. She didn’t appreciate the threat, saying in response, “I’m like, ‘fuck you.’” She has crossed her “favourite president” on a number of issues including Iran, Ukraine and Gaza, which she calls a “genocide.”
According to Stephen Bannon, right-wing extremist and former Trump adviser, “From where the base is, she’s right on every issue—and pushing things, going where the puck is going.” Is Steve implying that Trump is no longer always where the base is?
As for the American people, their populist president is not popular. Tariffs driving up the price of their coffee (and adding to their taxes), national guard troops in their cities, cutting health care to provide tax cuts for billionaires, fewer vaccinations combined with more measles, among other things, have given a lot of his voters second thoughts. According to Gallup, only 40 percent of Americans approve of how he’s doing his job and only 29 percent are satisfied with the way the country is going. No other recent president, other than Trump himself in his first administration, has been this unpopular at this point in his term.
So it seems there may be a growing disaffection with the Trump regime and its ideological soulmates elsewhere. Is it possible the bloom is fading from the populist rose? One can always hope.